StashAway’s Q1 2025 Returns

US President Trump’s policy agenda has created uncertainty and growth fears in the first quarter of 2025, rattling markets. In the same period, the US stock market entered correction territory – bringing global equities down 1%. Meanwhile, assets like gold and bonds gained on safe-haven demand.

During this volatile period for assets such as global equities, returns for our flagship General Investing portfolios are all positive. They’ve returned 2.4% on average in USD terms in Q1, and have also outperformed their same-risk benchmarks across all risk levels. 

That’s due to our Economic Regime-based Asset Allocation (ERAA™) investment framework, which ensures diversification in your portfolios with exposure to global equities, bonds, and gold. This framework also helps to manage risk when there are changes in the macro environment.

Here’s how the portfolios on our platform performed in Q1:

• General Investing and Goal-based Investing (These two portfolios share similar asset allocation)
• Thematic portfolios

General Investing and Goal-based Investing portfolios

StashAway’s General Investing (GI) and Goal-based Investing portfolios delivered strong results in Q1, outperforming their same-risk benchmarks across all risk levels. The portfolios returned 2.4% on average in USD terms (1.8% in THB terms) compared to an average benchmark return of 1.8% in USD terms.Over the past 12 months, the portfolios also outperformed, posting gains of 7.3% on average in USD terms versus 6.4% for their respective same-risk benchmarks in USD terms.

This consistent performance reinforces the strength of our ERAA™ investment framework, which adapts portfolio allocations based on macroeconomic conditions – not market noise – to deliver long-term, risk-adjusted returns.

In uncertain times, diversification is one of your best defenses

As we highlighted in our recent CIO Insights: No Pain, No Gain, the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s policy agenda has emerged as a key source of market volatility. In particular, the administration’s willingness to accept short-term pain in pursuit of longer-term strategic objectives has rattled investor sentiment, with tariffs and retaliatory measures creating headwinds for global growth.

These developments contributed to a sharp pullback in US equities, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 10% from its February peak in Q1. At the same time, pressures on the Magnificent Seven tech stocks – driven by valuation concerns and a more cautious outlook for AI-related growth – added to overall US market weakness.

Our General Investing portfolios, guided by ERAA™, are built to adapt to changing economic regimes and capitalise on market dynamics as they unfold. Their broad-based diversification – across geographies, sectors, and asset classes – has been a source of resilience and returns.

Take equities: while the US market has struggled over the past few months, global equities outside the US have held up better – spurred by catalysts like fiscal stimulus announcements in the European Union and AI-related developments in China. Within US equities, their allocations to more defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples have contributed to higher returns and lower volatility.

Another key contributor to performance was these portfolios’ structural allocation to gold – which we incorporated into their benchmarks due to its long-standing role as a defensive and diversifying asset. Historically, gold has performed well in periods of market stress or macro uncertainty, often moving differently from both equities and bonds – and this past year was no exception. Meanwhile, their bond allocations also benefited from rising prices as markets began to price in weaker growth.

Looking ahead, while we may see further market volatility in the near-term due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies and the potential negotiations going forward, it is still early to say how the macro data will ultimately evolve. (For more, see CIO Update: What you should know about President Trump’s tariffs.)

As always, ERAA™ will continue to take a data-driven approach to managing your portfolios in response to the changes in the economic environment – keeping them well-positioned to navigate volatility and take advantage of opportunities across global markets.

Gold outshone most asset classes on safe-haven demand 

Gold has continued to rally – with gains of 18% year-to-date and 38% over the past 12 months. That’s due to sustained central-bank buying and investor safe-haven demand amid persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty – including US trade policy.

As a reminder, last April we incorporated gold in all benchmarks for the General Investing portfolios. The goal: include a defensive, diversifying asset versus equities and bonds, to support better risk-adjusted returns throughout economic cycles. 

For example, take the traditional 60/40 portfolio, comprising 60% stocks and 40% bonds. By including gold (as well as ultra-short-duration Treasuries) into our comparable portfolio’s benchmark, we have seen higher annualised returns and lower volatility – and thus, higher risk-adjusted returns, as highlighted in Chart 2 below. The same is true for more bond and equity-focused portfolios. As these benchmarks are the foundations for constructing our portfolios, the aim is to create the foundation for higher risk-adjusted returns.

(For more detail on our benchmarks, see CIO Insights: How we put your money to work – the nuts and bolts of ERAA™, our investment framework.)

In Q1, our ERAA™ investment framework's overweight allocations to gold continued to serve its role as a protective asset, as well as a key driver of portfolio performance. During this period of heightened market volatility, the asset has contributed between 0.6 to 2 percentage points to portfolios’ returns – offsetting the drag from US equities.

Global equities have been pulled down by the US market, highlighting that diversification is key

So far in 2025, equities saw a divergence in performance: the S&P 500 declined 4.3% over the period while global stocks excluding the US posted a 5.1% gain, as illustrated in Chart 3 below. Here, ERAA™'s allocations to these markets helped to offset the drag from US stocks – highlighting the power of diversification.

Even within US equities, there is dispersion amongst different sectors – with much of the drag in the S&P 500 coming from the tech-focused Magnificent Seven, as illustrated in Chart 4 below. In this regard, ERAA™ 's allocations to more defensive sectors like health care and consumer staples helped to cushion the impact from its exposures to consumer discretionary and information technology.

Elevated yields, safe-haven demand supported bond allocations

A number of factors contributed to solid performance in these portfolios’ bond allocations in Q1: 

• In lower-risk portfolios, ERAA™'s allocations to ultra-short-duration US Treasury bills continued to offer still-elevated yields – around 4.2-4.3% – at very low risk. 
  
  
• Global aggregate bonds – which include global government bonds and investment grade corporate bonds – also rallied amid a flight-to-safety due to elevated macro uncertainty, as well as increased concerns about economic growth. 
  
  
• A 4% decline in the US dollar during the period likely amplified USD returns from foreign bond holdings denominated in other major currencies like the euro or yen.

Put together, steady yields from bonds on the short-end of the curve, price appreciation from the longer-end, and a weaker dollar benefiting global bonds all contributed to supporting portfolio performance – again, highlighting the importance of diversification even within asset classes.

Thematic Portfolios

The past three months have been tough for thematic assets, given the downturn in the tech sector, persistent market volatility, and a rotation out of riskier assets amid investor caution. One bright spot was the Healthcare Innovation portfolio given the defensive attributes of parts of the sector. Over a longer period, our tech-focused Technology Enablers and Future of Consumer Tech portfolios benefited from the past 12 months’ AI-related rally. 

That said, as we shared toward the end of 2024 when we refreshed the Thematic Portfolios, thematic investing requires a long-term view. Rather than a few quarters, we encourage thematic investors to think over a longer time horizon – it takes time for these mega-trends to play out.

Technology Enablers

The Technology Enablers portfolios posted returns of -6% on average in USD terms (-6.5% in THB terms) for the year to end-March.

Over the past 12 months, they were up 10.4% on average in USD terms (3% in THB terms).

The portfolio’s broad-based exposure to the tech sector meant it was not immune to the risk-off environment in Q1. That said, the cybersecurity sector’s smaller drawdown, of just -0.7%, helped to buffer the drawdown during the period. Its allocations to blockchain and cloud computing companies were the biggest drags. Looking over a longer period, however, its returns were supported by exposure to those same sectors – which were beneficiaries of the past year’s rally in AI-related stocks.

Future of Consumer Tech

The Future of Consumer Tech portfolios saw returns of -2.7% on average in USD terms (-3.2% in THB terms) for the year to end-March.

Over the past 12 months, they were up 6.5% on average in USD terms (-0.7% in THB terms).

Amid the broad-based downturn in the tech sector, the esports and gaming sub-sector continued to be a bright spot in Q1. That was due to strong performance from companies like Nintendo and Tencent, as well as a broadly positive outlook for the industry. On the other hand, the fintech and internet sub-sectors were the main detractors.

Healthcare Innovation

The Healthcare Innovation portfolios posted returns of 0.7% on average in USD terms (0.2% in THB terms) for the year to end-March.

Over the past 12 months, they were down -3.5% on average in USD terms (-10% in THB terms).

After its muted performance in 2024, the healthcare sector benefited from its more defensive attributes and attractive valuations – as investors rotated to more defensive sectors amid the market uncertainty in Q1. In particular, these portfolios’ allocations to the pharmaceutical and medical devices subsectors were the main contributor to returns. That also helped to offset the pressures experienced by more volatile parts of the healthcare industry, like biotechnology.

Environment and Cleantech

The Environment and Cleantech portfolios saw returns of -2.6% on average in USD terms (-3.1% in THB terms) for the year to end-March.

Over the past 12 months, they were down -6.1% on average in USD terms (-12.5% in THB terms).

Heightened US policy uncertainty has been a challenge for these portfolios in recent months. In particular, Trump’s tariff threats on imports from Canada posed significant challenges to the uranium industry given that the country is a key supplier of uranium to the US. As a result, these portfolios’ exposure to the subsector was the key drag in Q1. Mitigating the impact, the portfolios’ exposures to sub-sectors like clean energy and water were broadly flat for the period.

*Disclaimers:

Our same-risk benchmarks are proxied by FTSE All-World Index for Growth (Prior to 31 July 2024 are proxied by MSCI All Country World Index and prior to 1 March 2023 are proxied by MSCI World Equity Index TRI) and FTSE World Government Bond TRI for Protective. After 24 April 2024, we added Bloomberg 1-3 Month US Treasury Bill Index for ST Treasuries and Bloomberg Gold Subindex Total Return Index for Gold to the benchmark.

Model portfolio returns are expressed in gross terms before fees, withholding taxes, and reclaims on dividends. They are provided only as a gauge of pure performance before other items.

Actual account returns may deviate from the model portfolios due to differences in the timing of trade execution (e.g. during the day vs close), timing differences and intraday volatility of reoptimisation and rebalancing, fees, dividend taxes and reclaims, etc.

Past performance is not a guarantee for future returns. Before investing, investors should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, and if need be, seek independent professional advice.

This communication is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to purchase any financial product or subscribe or enter any transaction.

This communication does not take into account your personal circumstances, e.g. investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, and shall not constitute financial advice. You should consult your own independent financial, accounting, tax, legal or other competent professional advisors.